Friday, February 28, 2014

You will understand what is happening in Ukraine if you imagine that Crimea is Puerto Rico

I readily admit, I am no historian or devotee of all things Ukrainian. I did know one Consul from Ukraine (Ukrainians hate people using "The Ukraine" I am told). And he was a very nice guy. But beyond that, and a photograph with this Consul and someone high in the Ukraine government years ago, until recently my knowledge of Ukraine was limited to my memories of Soviet history learned years ago.

Now we have a global conflict all of a sudden, when one can easily argue that Ukraine could and probably is well within the sphere of Russia's influence. After all, it not just borders Russia, but has been on and off for a hundred years, more or less, largely in Russian control or at least shadow. Of course, the exact relationship is difficult to see. Even our highest local Department of State official admitted to going it alone on some things, if not everything, by saying "F___ the EU" when talking about recent US involvement in Ukraine.

This is but the first way that you might understand Crimea. It is also useful to remember that old history of constant conflict here because Crimea (and for that matter Ukraine) is one of the most strategically important locations for the past centuries. You can learn this from the game Risk. But by just looking at it, you can see by its location on the Black Sea, as an entry point into that mass of land to its North, East and West that includes what people consider Europe and Asia with a narrow isthmus joining it to the mainland of Ukraine, that this is a very defensible and strategic jumping point for not only the land, but for any Navy seeking to move into Turkey, the Middle East and the Mediterranean.

If you ever go to war in the region, you need to control Crimea.

In reality, Crimea is not just the geographic location, but also a political location with a complex constitutional relationship with Ukraine and Russia. Crimea is an autonomous republic that is also part of Ukraine.  And one with various legal ties to the Russian fleet.

Although not singularly important to this review, it is worth noting that the history of Crimea is further complicated by the nature of its people and the number of different Soviet and Russian leaders who have been involved in this relationship.

Crimea is a part of Ukraine, but it is not fully integrated into Ukraine by any means.

With most of its citizens torn more toward Russia than Ukraine, and the difficulty of what "independence" really is for at least Crimea, the treatment of a Crimea take-over needs a lot more thought than given by many reporters.

In the end, we know what this is really like.

We have had a relationship with Puerto Rico for many years along similar lines, with no one certain as to its likely path for the future but consistent decisions not to make Puerto Rico a state. Indeed, one can make the same argument even of Ukraine, except that it is clearly independent at the moment.

So what if Ukraine again became a Russian satellite? Or what if Crimea (or Puerto Rico) suddenly decided to do something against the best interests of its long-time part-time partner?

Think of things this way, and you might begin to think differently about what is happening. And whether we belong there at all.

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